Psychological Determinants of Mathematics Achievement Among Saudi Students: Evidence from PISA 2022

Abstract

Mathematics performance reflects a complex interaction of psychological (emotional), social, motivational, and structural factors; however, prior research has typically examined these variables in isolation, limiting understanding of their combined effects, particularly within Middle Eastern contexts. This study investigates the relative impact of emotional, social, motivational, and structural variables on mathematics achievement among Saudi students using data from PISA 2022. A cross-sectional design was employed with a nationally representative sample of 6,928 students, and mathematics achievement was measured using ten plausible values. Hierarchical regression analysis was conducted to assess the incremental contribution of psychological variables beyond gender and socio-economic status. The findings suggest that mathematics anxiety was the strongest psychological predictor of achievement (β = −0.185, p < .001), while school belonging demonstrated a weak positive effect (β = 0.038, p = .008). In contrast, motivation was not statistically significant (β = −0.021, p = .123), and life satisfaction showed a weak negative association with achievement (β = −0.051, p < .001). The inclusion of psychological variables increased the explained variance by 3.6% (f² = 0.041). These results suggest that emotional processes, particularly mathematics anxiety, play a central role in shaping academic performance beyond structural factors, whereas motivation may operate indirectly. The findings underscore the importance of prioritizing interventions that target mathematics anxiety, as such approaches are likely to yield greater improvements in academic outcomes than strategies focusing solely on motivation or general well-being, consistent with the educational priorities outlined in Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030.